Generally, demographic dividend is seen as a window of opportunity for accelerating economic growth. But to unlock the opportunities of demographic dividend a country needs to introduce timely plans and initiatives. Obviously, the world has seen instances that despite blessed with demographic dividend many countries have failed to reap the benefits of it. Again, we see that the term ‘demographic dividend’ is more often misunderstood when its outcomes are considered imminent.
However, demographic dividend refers to the potential economic growth occurring with the changes in the age structure of the population conforming to an increase in working age population and a decrease in the dependent age population. Economic growth is accelerated when more people are included in the group of working population with a decrease of the dependent ones.
Demographic dividend of Bangladesh continues to promise new opportunities. Out of 180 million people in the country there are around 50 million people who are aged 15-29 years promising the uninterrupted benefits until we reach in the year-2040. Through the demographic transition the country is currently going on is a gradual shift from high fertility to mortality to low fertility to mortality resulting in a significant change in the demographic profile and age-sex structure.
According to the 2022 census the ratio of working age population (age 15-64) is 65.63% which was 60.62% in the 2011 census and the dependent population (0-14 years and 65 years and above) has declined significantly from 73% in 2011 to 52.64% in 2022 showing the significant increase of working-age population expected to reap benefits.
However, the increase in the ratio of working age population does not guarantee that this will contribute to harnessing demographic dividend of a country. In fact, the increase of working age population can hardly fulfil the aspirant promises unless they are engaged in the mainstream workforce. Reaping the benefits of demographic dividend is challenging for the poor and developing countries as it mostly depends on how much they are investing on the issue.
Experts have stated two sufficient conditions that must be met to maximize the benefits from demographic dividend. One is the quality of the working age population which could be measured in terms of health and education status and the second one relates to the capacity of the economy to create an adequate number of decent jobs ensuring fair wages and secure employment.
It is no denial that to maximize the benefits from demographic dividend now it needs to invest heavily in health, education, skills development and job creation specially for the younger population. It is very imperative to ensure gender equality and women’s empowerment in receiving the desired outcomes from demographic dividend.
It is good to see that in the last fifty years Bangladesh has made a remarkable success in its every sector. Once branded as a "bottomless basket" is being considered now as a miracle of South Asia due to its emerging economic growth. The country has made a surprising success story over the years for which it is being considered as a global model for development, economic growth, poverty mitigation and gender equality.
In some decades with its positive economic growth the country is firmly graduating from the least developed countries, which is predicted to be one of the 25 largest economies in the world by 2035. However, the country is advancing with a vision to be a developed one by 2041. So, it is the peak time for the country to harness demographic dividend that will contribute much to reach its goal significantly within the target time.
However, to harness the demographic dividend of the country prioritizing some sectors is pivotal. It is imperative to build up a knowledge-based economy ensuring quality education for the nation. But the country’s education struggles much to produce quality graduates for the highly competitive global market. The question is pertinent to raise; how far our universities equip students with skills pivotal to turn them into human resources?
As education in most cases hardly contributes to developing skills of students required to meet the challenges in the highly competitive labor market. the unemployment rate among the educated youths has increased significantly corresponding to the bleak scenario of our higher education as it has failed to produce quality manpower.
Truly, there is a gap widening between the demand for skilled workers by the local industries and international job market and the supply ensured by educational institutions as skill-based paradigm is hardly ensured in the field of education. In most cases, it is commonly found that universities are not worried at all regarding the employability of the graduates, rather they are busy with awarding degrees to their students and hardly maintain liaison with the outgoing students in regard to creating scopes for them.
Another issue we need to address is healthcare to reap the benefits of demographic dividend. Evidently, in healthcare the country has seen commendable progress in certain areas such as reducing maternal and child mortality rates. But it continues to struggle as inclusive and sustainable health services are still inadequate posing a major threat for the impoverished affecting their productivity to an extent.
The country spends three percent 3 percent of its GDP on healthcare which is lower compared to that of other countries in the South Asia and lower than what the world health organization recommends. To turn the population of the country human resources we hardly have any scope to ignore the healthcare of the masses.
Undeniably, the country has advanced significantly in the index of women’s empowerment regarded as the role model of women’s empowerment in South Asia. Increasing girls’ enrollment at different education levels and decreasing drop-out rates correspond that the country is on right track to empower the women community. On top of that, among the South Asian countries Bangladesh has been ranked the top country in bringing down gender gap.
The recent Global Gender Gap Report has revealed that the country has reduced 72.6 percent of its overall gender gap and ranked 50th position out of 153 countries globally. Over the years women’s participation in the workforce has increased but still we see less scope for women in the mainstream workforce. Compared to men the number of working age women is higher in the country. So, utilizing their potentials adds more scopes to income generation and boost up national economy. However, unless we ensure the full participation of women in workforce, demographic dividend could hardly be able to reap benefits.
To this end, it is the peak time of the country to fulfil the promises of demographic dividend into reality and for this, investing heavily in human capital and getting all the working age population ready for workforce is a must. Obviously, much priority should be given to ensuring quality education and quality healthcare which aim at helping the individuals grow up sustainably, boost the national economy and materialize the vision -2041.
Writer: Alaul Alam teaches at Prime University. He is also a research scholar at the IBS. Email: malaulalam@gmail.com
BDST: 1700 HRS, MAY 7, 2024
MSK
