It is now the talk of South Asia. It is now in the headlines of print media, hot news in electronic media in Bangladesh. Prime Minister of India is set for a historic visit to Bangladesh. There are high expectations, many speculations about so many possible and probable agreements of regional connectivity being agreed and concluded, and few long outstanding issues to be amicably settled and resolved.

Two major South Asian nations share same art, culture, history, language and traditions. They were once part of greater India. One country sheltered millions of helpless refugees during the genocide by occupation army in 1971, provided training, arms and ammunitions and even fought alongside the liberation fighters to earn independence. But the bilateral relations went through series of trials and tribulations for geopolitical events.

Many irritating issues soured the relation, created mistrust and disbelief. Not that the people kept their fingers crossed over these. Common people, technical experts, economists, researchers, academics relentlessly endeavored to discuss and resolve matters at bilateral level. But bureaucracy, geopolitics created barriers.

Finally, ice has started melting.  The two nations and the rest of the South Asian region -- Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar are anxiously waiting to witness the outcome of what are agreed and concluded next week during Hasina-Modi summit in Dhaka. This may open many windows of opportunities. Regional connectivity will catalyze cooperation in developing and sharing energy resources, free trading, joint actions in combating anarchy and terrorism. The economy can grow faster creating job opportunities alleviating poverty and hunger.

Issues and Opportunities

Land Border Agreement

One of the very critical and long outstanding issues that created profuse bleeding in the bilateral relation is land border agreement. Bengal was divided during the breaking of greater India into two nations -- India and Pakistan -- on the basis of religion. The international border dividing created few issues. Some enclaves were undefined and disputed territories.

After the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971 Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi initialed the historic Land Border Agreement (LBA). Dahogram, Angorpota were major enclaves and Teen Bigha corridor required unhindered access. Bangladesh parliament immediately endorsed the treaty in 1974 but India did not as in the Indian highest judiciary interpretation it required amendment of Indian Constitution.

Unfortunately, Indian Parliament could not come to any consensus to it until recently when the bill got unanimous approval of two tier Indian legislation. The LBA will now be finally approved during the summit ending the pains and agonies of the people of the enclaves of over half a century. The people will have national identity, rights and privileges of citizens of a specific nation.

Sharing of River Water:

Bangladesh is a Bengal River basin. All the major rivers flowing across Bangladesh mostly originates in India and some in Nepal. These meet Indian Ocean after traversing across Bangladesh. The life and living in Bangladesh is dependent mainly on the river waters. India setting up Farakka Barrage and many other barrages and dams on the upstream of most rivers regulates the flow of river water in such a way that Bangladesh is deprived of its legitimate share as lower riparian country. These have seriously affected the Bangladesh ecology, environment, agriculture and economy.

After long and protracted discussion, Ganges water treaty could be concluded during the first term of Sheikh Hasina led Government in late 1990s. But water sharing of other major rivers, importantly Teesta, remained unresolved. The agreement was almost signed during the immediate past tenure of Congress-led Government in India in 2010. But at the last moment for rigid attitude of West Bengal Chief Minister the meeting of minds of two governments failed to reach logical conclusion.

Incumbent Indian Government of Narendra Modi appears to be sincerely endeavoring to conclude the agreement taking the Chief Minister of West Bengal on board. Media report is not encouraging something happening next week. But efforts are continuing for reaching a positive road map for it. Pending resolutions of Teesta River Water sharing protecting and ensuring the legitimate right of Bangladesh many other matters may be very difficult to get through.

Connectivity

These days’ people do not like the terms transit or transshipment. Connectivity is more used, economically and diplomatically more acceptable term. Bangladesh shares borders with India in West and North exclusively and 85 percent at the east with India. There are more than three dozen routes where the different regions of the two countries can have connectivity to communications, trade and peoples movement. For absence of cross border connectivity, several Indian states, popularly known as seven sisters, suffer a lot in communicating with other parts of the country. These states and also land locked Nepal and Bhutan cannot trade freely with Bangladesh or use Bangladesh port facilities for international trade. The multi-modal regional connectivity including road, rail and waterways will open new horizon. India and Bangladesh can use each other’s port and other facilities to trade among themselves and with third countries. It is to be seen how many of the connectivity would be ultimately agreed. But mere signing of MOU or agreement will mean little. The supporting infrastructures, customs facilities, visa and immigration formalities need to be modernized and updated.

In connectivity, huge works need to be done. Road, Railway infrastructures need massive upgrading and development, security in country and across the border needs to be beefed up and digitized. The coastal shipping connections leading Indian Ports Visakhapatnam, Paradeep and Holdia with Chittagong and Mongla can bring immense benefits for both countries and the region. The coast guards and navy of both countries must collaborate in preventing human trafficking and illegal trading.

Utilization of Bangladesh Port Facilities

The Connectivity of Assam and West Bengal, Tripura and West Bengal on road and rail across Bangladesh will also open avenues for Indian states to use Chittagong and Mongla port for international trading. Bangladesh must also get opportunity to use Indian ports if and when required. Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan using the connectivity through Indian territories can also share Chittagong and Mongla port facilities.

Connectivity and Impacts on Energy Security

Economy of south Asia is developing fast and with this comes energy security as very essential facilitating element. Regional connectivity between and among India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and even Myanmar will lead to power and energy grid connectivity for joint development of huge potential energy resources and sharing in regional grid. For this to happen on win- win basis there must be extensive regulatory reforms and vibrant private public partnership in the energy and power sector in the region. Sharing of information, collaborating with experts’ knowledge and joint development of resources must be the way to go.

Indian Investment in Bangladesh

There is no embargo on Indian investment in Bangladesh. Like any other country, Indian private sector and Industrial conglomerates can invest in Bangladesh. Indians can get special economic zone. But any Indian investment, say in Power and Energy sector, must be aligned with Bangladesh policy and program.  Indian companies must participate in International competitive bidding with rationale approach. We will not suggest unsolicited offers and preferential treatment as these will create unfair competition and eventually create mistrust among international investment community.

India Must Host Bangladesh Cricket Team

India was the first country that appeared in Test Cricket against Bangladesh in Dhaka and since then visited Bangladesh a few times. BBCI President Jagmohan Dalmia, Indian superstars Sunil Gavaskar, Sachin Tendulkar and especially Sourav Ganguly are great friends of Bangladesh Cricket. But India is the only major test playing country that never invited Bangladesh for a domestic series. This must end soon. The ensuing home series of Bangladesh will evidence that new Bangladesh team is far more competitive. The bitterness created by disputes beween ICC Chairman and Ex-President of ICC during the recent World Cup was only one off incident. BBCI and BCB remain aligned as ever.

Trade and Commerce

Regional connectivity will advance trade and commerce to new dimensions. India has relived many Bangladeshi commodities of tariff. But in actual practice, many non-tariff barriers create impediments. Protracted customs formalities at all land borders, absence of infrastructures and storage facilities on the Indian side of the border check posts, absence of alignment in standard testing procedures for quality control are major barriers. It is expected that there will be meeting of minds during the ensuing summit to agree on removing all these barriers.

Geopolitics and Terrorism

Geopolitics will obviously play a huge role. But functional democracy and people’s participation in all process, free, open and responsible media can keep the region immune of negative effects of geopolitics. The countries in general and Bangladesh and India in particular act more responsibly in combating terrorism and anarchy. Neither country must tolerate any terrorists activities in their land targeted against neighbor. Mutual trust, faith and functional collaboration will be essential.

Signing of agreement and protocol of deporting convicted criminals must not be delayed. India realizes that Bangladesh has done enough in almost rooting out anti-Indian insurgency elements from Bangladesh. Now it is the turn of India to reciprocate.

Conclusion

With so many contentious issues on board it will not right to expect that one visit of Indian Prime minister can solve all. Let it start with LBA and some of the regional connectivity, Bangladesh desperately needs legitimate share of all river waters including Teesta, Bangladesh needs all non-barriers resolved on Bangladeshi commodities entering India. Bangladesh also want unhindered access through Indian territory for trading with Nepal and Bhutan. Bangladesh also desire nondiscriminatory visa formalities for travelling to India.

Land Border Agreement (LBA) is a definite milestone and ice breaker. But it was lying on Indian court since 1974. If the countries ultimately fail to reach any conclusion on Teesta River Water sharing or even agree on a definite time frame and an agreed framework during the upcoming summit at Dhaka this may dampen the spirit of togetherness a bit. Bangladesh in that case must not play all its cards. All that India wants to get out of the present visit must not be agreed. Few matters off course will require detail feasibility studies and further professional scrutiny.

BDST: 1055 HRS, JUN 02, 2015
SR/SMS